How likely, roughly, is it to be struck by lightning in your lifetime?

Play today’s rounds

FreeNo account required5 rounds a day2 minutes

How to play

  1. The lightning question above a field of two dots, one of them red, beside a scale from 1 to 1 billion
    Read the question and the line under the number. It says what is counted: people, throws, flights, years.
  2. Mid-drag at 1 in 1,000: a sunflower of a thousand dots around the red one
    Drag the scale up for rarer. The field fills with that many dots, until it turns to dust with rings at 1,000 and 10,000.
  3. The reveal: the field moved to the real 1 in 15,000, the guess left as a dashed red ring, the miss as a factor
    Lock it in. The field moves to the real odds, your guess stays as a dashed ring, and the miss stands there as a factor.

Play today’s five rounds

The reveal

10kyou1101001M10M100M1Byou 25kreal 15k

1.63× too rare

Over an 80-year lifetime in the US, the odds of being struck by lightning are about 1 in 15,300. Source ›

About 270 people a year are killed or injured by lightning in the US (2009 to 2018), out of 330 million: 1 in 1.22 million per year. Over 80 years that adds up to about 1 in 15,300, the disk in the picture, with thin rings where 1,000 and 10,000 end. The guess was 1 in 25,000, so the dashed ring lies outside the disk: 25,000 / 15,300 = 1.63, too rare.

What is in it

These, and more every week. A few you can work out with dice and cards, most are counted in the real world.

  • Being born in India
  • Rolling a double six
  • Struck by lightning
  • A royal flush
  • Hurt by a grizzly
  • Dinosaur-killer asteroid
  • and more

Start with today’s first question

Questions

What is a daily probability guessing game?
A game that gives you five real odds a day to estimate. Here every answer is one in how many: you drag a scale from 1 to 1 billion, see that many dots around one red dot, and then the real number.
What are the odds of being struck by lightning?
About 1 in 15,300 over an 80-year lifetime in the US, according to the US National Weather Service. For a single year it is about 1 in 1.22 million.
Is it free?
Yes, and you never need an account. Five new rounds come every day.
How is a round scored?
As a factor with a direction. Guess 1 in 100 when the truth is 1 in 1,000 and the sheet reads 10× too common. No points, and no streak nagging.
Where do the numbers come from?
From primary sources: the UN for births (in 2023, 1 in 5.7 babies worldwide was born in India), NASA for asteroids (a 10 km one hits about once every 100 million years), the US National Park Service for grizzlies (1 in 3.3 million Yellowstone visits). Dice and cards follow from the rules alone: a royal flush is 1 in 649,740 hands.

Play How likely? today